Rothschild model: Trump in New Mexico trails by a very clear margin
The Rothschild model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 84.0% for Clinton and 16.0% for Trump in New Mexico.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be treated with caution, because they often incorporate large biases. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton can currently count on 52.6% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in New Mexico. Relative to her numbers in the Rothschild model Clinton's econometric model average is 31.4 percentage points lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The results of the Rothschild model for Clinton are thus 30.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.3% in New Mexico. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 30.9 percentage points higher.