Rothschild model in Indiana: Trump is in the lead

The Rothschild model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model predicts that Clinton will obtain 1.0% of the two-party vote share in Indiana, while Trump will win 99.0%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they can incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, you should look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of Indiana econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 57.3%. This value is 41.7 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Rothschild model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Rothschild model for Trump are thus 43.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.5% in Indiana. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 52.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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