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Rothschild model: Trump with very clear lead in Arizona


The Rothschild model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 1.0% for Clinton and 99.0% for Trump in Arizona.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they can contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Arizona has Trump at 57.3% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the Rothschild model Trump's econometric model average is 41.7 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the Rothschild model for Trump are thus 44.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.1% in Arizona. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 52.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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