New Clout Research (R)Clout Research (R) poll in Oregon: Clinton and Trump in a dead heat
By Clout Research (R)Clout Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Clout Research (R)Clout Research (R) poll results
Of those who answered the question, 42.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from May 10 to May 13, among a random sample of 657 likely voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-3.8 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they often incorporate substantial errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 48.8% for Clinton and 51.2% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Oregon polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 48.5%. This value is 2.7 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Clout Research (R)Clout Research (R) poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 45.8% of the two-party vote in Oregon. Hence, the PollyVote is 5.4 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is significant.
