Pennsylvania: Solid advantage for Clinton in new Franklin & Marshall poll
Franklin & Marshall released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Franklin & Marshall poll results
The results show that 49.0% of respondents would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% would cast a ballot for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 29 to August 2 among 389 likely voters. The error margin is +/-6.3 points, which means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they may include large biases. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 56.3% for Clinton and 43.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania has Clinton at 55.1% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Franklin & Marshall poll Clinton's poll average is 1.2 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, the combined PollyVote is 3.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.