Franklin & Marshall released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Franklin & Marshall poll results
The results show that 49.0% of participants will cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between July 29 and August 2. The sample size was 389 likely voters. The error margin is +/-6.3 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 56.3% for Clinton and 43.7% for Trump. For comparison: 58.2% was gained by Clinton in the Franklin & Marshall poll on April 27, for Trump this result was only 41.8%.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 55.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Franklin & Marshall poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 3.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.