Results of a new poll conducted by SusquehannaSusquehanna were circulated. The poll asked interviewees from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
SusquehannaSusquehanna poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of respondents will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 37.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between July 31 and August 4. The sample size was 772 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 56.0% for Clinton and 44.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 55.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the SusquehannaSusquehanna poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, the PollyVote is 2.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.