Results of a new poll carried out by Quinnipiac were released. The poll asked interviewees from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who replied, 52.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 30 to August 7 among 815 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.4 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 55.3% for Clinton and 44.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 55.1%. This value is 0.2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the PollyVote is 2.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.