Pennsylvania: Trump and Clinton virtually tied in new DeSart model

The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 50.3% for Clinton and 49.7% for Trump in Pennsylvania.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, as they often contain substantial errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

If we look at an average of Pennsylvania econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.9%. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 3.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.4% in Pennsylvania. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.8 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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