Quinnipiac published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Quinnipiac poll results
According to the results, 52.0% of respondents indicated that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 30 to August 7. A total of 815 likely voters responded. The error margin is +/-3.4 points. This means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 55.3% for Clinton and 44.7% for Trump. To compare: Only 48.8% was obtained by Clinton in the Quinnipiac poll on August 1, for Trump this number was 51.2%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 55.1%. This value is 0.2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 2.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.