PPP (D) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
PPP (D) poll results
The results show that 49.0% of respondents indicated that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 29 to July 31 with 1505 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's margin of error of +/-2.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 55.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. Compared to her numbers in the PPP (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 3.0 percentage points better. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.2 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this deviation is insignificant.