Results of a new poll administered by Clout Research (R)Clout Research (R) were released. The poll asked interviewees from Oregon for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Clout Research (R)Clout Research (R) poll results
Of those who replied, 43.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 9 to July 13 with 701 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, since they may include large biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 51.8% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Oregon has Clinton at 51.5% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Clout Research (R)Clout Research (R) poll Clinton's poll average is 0.3 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Oregon. This means that the PollyVote is 2.4 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.