Oregon: Rothschild model shows Clinton in the lead

The Rothschild model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 95.0% for Clinton and 5.0% for Trump in Oregon. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to gain only 5.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, don't have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Oregon sees Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Rothschild model Clinton's econometric model average is 40.9 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Oregon, which is 40.8 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 42.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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