The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 54.2% of the two-party vote share in Oregon, while Trump will win 45.8%.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models may incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Oregon sees Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.8% in Oregon. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.1 percentage points higher.