Sooner PollSooner Poll released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Oklahoma were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Sooner PollSooner Poll poll results
The results show that 29.0% of respondents will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 53.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 20 to July 25 with 298 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-4.9 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, since they often include large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 35.4% for Clinton and 64.6% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
If we look at an average of Oklahoma polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 62.0%. In comparison to his numbers in the Sooner PollSooner Poll poll Trump's poll average is 2.6 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 62.5% of the two-party vote in Oklahoma. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.1 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is insignificant.