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Ohio: New QuinnipiacQuinnipiac poll shows Clinton with 4 points lead


Results of a new poll carried out by QuinnipiacQuinnipiac were released. The poll asked participants from Ohio for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

In Ohio, the popular vote is often close. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

QuinnipiacQuinnipiac poll results




Of those who answered the question, 49.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted between July 30 and August 7. The sample size was 812 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.4 points, which means that the poll results for the two candidates do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump. In the latest QuinnipiacQuinnipiac poll on August 9 Clinton received only 50.0%, while Trump received 50.0%.

Results vs. other polls

If we look at an average of Ohio polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.5%. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the QuinnipiacQuinnipiac poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 1.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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