Latest CBS News/YouGov poll in Ohio: Trump trails by a small margin
Results of a new poll administered by CBS News/YouGov were published. The poll asked participants from Ohio for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Ohio has been a battleground state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is why forecasts in this state are of particular interest.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
The results show that 44.0% of respondents said that they would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% said that they would cast a ballot for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from July 13 to July 15, among a random sample of 1104 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.5 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they can include large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Ohio has Clinton at 51.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, the PollyVote is 1.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is insignificant.