CBS News/YouGov released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Historically, Ohio has been a purple state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions in this state are of particular importance.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
Of those who answered the question, 44.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 13 to July 15 with 1104 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.5 points. This means that the levels of voter support for both candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they often contain large biases. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Ohio has Clinton at 51.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Hence, Polly's prediction is 1.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.