Results of a new poll conducted by PPP (D) were circulated. The poll asked interviewees from Ohio for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
In Ohio, the popular vote is usually close. This is why the state is commonly considered a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, the two candidates can draw on equal levels of support, each with 45.0% of the vote.
This poll was conducted from July 22 to July 24, among a random sample of 1334 registered voters. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-2.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they can incorporate substantial errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share.
Results vs. other polls
In comparison to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 1.5 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.5 percentage points. This deviation is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.0% and Trump 49.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 1.0 percentage points less and Trump has 1.0 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is significant.