DeSart model: Trump with very clear lead in North Dakota

The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 37.0% for Clinton and 63.1% for Trump in North Dakota.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models often contain large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in North Dakota sees Trump at 59.4% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 3.7 percentage points lower.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 59.7% of the two-party vote in North Dakota, which is 3.4 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 16.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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