New Sooner Poll*Sooner Poll* poll in Oklahoma: Clinton trails by a whopping margin
By Sooner PollSooner Poll published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Oklahoma were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Sooner PollSooner Poll poll results
Of those who responded, 29.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 53.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 20 to July 25. A total of 298 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-4.9 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 35.4% for Clinton and 64.6% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Oklahoma sees Trump at 62.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.6 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Sooner PollSooner Poll poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 62.5% of the two-party vote in Oklahoma. Hence, Polly's prediction is 2.1 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.
