DeSart model in New Jersey: Clinton with clear lead

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 56.9% for Clinton and 43.2% for Trump in New Jersey.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they can incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 57.3% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in New Jersey. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.6% in New Jersey. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 3.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.