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Latest Jerome model in Ohio: Trump and Clinton in a tossup


The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 51.3% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, while Trump will win 48.7%.

Historically, Ohio has been a swing state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts here are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, don't have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 50.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Ohio. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.7% in Ohio. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.8 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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