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Rothschild model in New Hampshire: Clinton with very clear lead


The Rothschild model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 71.0% for Clinton and 29.0% for Trump in New Hampshire.

Historically, New Hampshire has been a battleground state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts in this state are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, you should not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 52.3% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in New Hampshire. This value is 18.7 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Rothschild model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Rothschild model for Clinton are thus 17.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.6% in New Hampshire. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 17.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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