Wisconsin: Virtual tie between Trump and Clinton in new DeSart model

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump in Wisconsin.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, as they may include substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Wisconsin sees Clinton at 53.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.0 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 2.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.7% in Wisconsin. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.9 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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