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Latest DeSart model in Ohio: Trump and Clinton in a virtual tie


The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to this model, Clinton will garner 49.1% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will end up with 50.9%.

In Ohio, the popular vote is usually close. This is the reason why the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they may include large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 49.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Ohio. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 1.1 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio, which is 1.6 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 4.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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