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New Hampshire: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in latest DeSart model


The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model forecasts that Clinton will receive 50.4% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, whereas Trump will win 49.6%.

In New Hampshire, the election outcome is often close. Therefore, the state is commonly viewed as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, don't focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 52.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in New Hampshire. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.8 percentage points higher.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 3.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.6% in New Hampshire. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.7 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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