The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.5% for Clinton and 48.5% for Trump in Nevada.
Nevada is traditionally a purple state, where the candidates of both major parties have historically gained similar levels of support among voters. Therefore, the election outcome here is considered crucial in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they can contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently runs at 51.3% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Nevada. This value is 0.2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 51.1% of the two-party vote in Nevada, which is 0.4 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.6 percentage points lower.