The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.0% for Clinton and 49.0% for Trump in Nevada.
Nevada is traditionally a battleground state, where Democrats and Republicans have often gained similar levels of voter support. Therefore, the election outcome here is viewed as important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, since they can contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Nevada sees Clinton at 51.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 51.1% of the two-party vote in Nevada, which is 0.1 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 2.1 percentage points lower.