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Rothschild model: Trump with very clear lead in Nevada


The Rothschild model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 39.0% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, whereas Trump will win 61.0%.

In Nevada, the election outcome is often close. This is the reason why the state is commonly viewed as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they can incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Nevada econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 48.7%. Compared to his numbers in the Rothschild model Trump's econometric model average is 12.3 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 48.9% of the two-party vote in Nevada, which is 12.1 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 14.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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