Nebraska: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead
The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 41.6% for Clinton and 58.4% for Trump in Nebraska. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, one should not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently runs at 61.3% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Nebraska. This value is 2.9 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 61.1% in Nebraska. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 11.4 percentage points higher.