Rothschild model: Trump with very clear lead in Missouri
The Rothschild model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 1.0% for Clinton and 99.0% for Trump in Missouri.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be treated with caution, as they can include large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Missouri has Trump at 55.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 44.0 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Rothschild model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Rothschild model for Trump are thus 44.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.6% in Missouri. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 52.1 percentage points higher.