DeSart model in Missouri: Trump with clear lead

The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 42.5% of the two-party vote share in Missouri, whereas Trump will end up with 57.5%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they often include large biases. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of Missouri econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 55.1%. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 2.5 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 2.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.6% in Missouri. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 10.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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