Massachusetts: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model forecasts that Clinton will achieve 61.6% of the two-party vote share in Massachusetts, whereas Trump will win 38.4%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they often contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 62.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Massachusetts. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.5 percentage points higher.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 2.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 64.1% in Massachusetts. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 8.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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