DeSart model: Clinton in Louisiana trails by a very clear margin

The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 38.4% for Clinton and 61.6% for Trump in Louisiana.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Louisiana econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 57.4%. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 4.2 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.7% in Louisiana. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 14.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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