Latest PPP (D) poll in South Carolina: Trump and Clinton in a virtual tie
Results of a new poll conducted by PPP (D) were circulated. The poll asked interviewees from South Carolina for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
PPP (D) poll results
Of those who responded, 39.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 9 to August 10 among 1290 registered voters. The sampling error is +/-2.7 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not be overly confident the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 48.8% for Clinton and 51.3% for Trump. To compare: Only 47.2% was gained by Clinton in the PPP (D) poll on August 1, for Trump this number was 52.8%.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of South Carolina polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 51.1%. Relative to his numbers in the PPP (D) poll Trump's poll average is 0.3 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in South Carolina. That is, the PollyVote is 2.5 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is negligible.