Florida: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in new Jerome model

The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 51.0% of the two-party vote share in Florida, whereas Trump will end up with 49.0%.

Historically, Florida has been a swing state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Florida econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.5%. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.5 percentage points lower.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 50.6% of the two-party vote in Florida, which is 0.4 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.1 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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