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Virginia: Trump and Clinton virtually tied in latest DeSart model

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The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 49.5% for Clinton and 50.5% for Trump in Virginia.

In Virginia, the election outcome is usually close. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, because they can contain large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Virginia has Trump at 53.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 2.6 percentage points higher.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 1.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 48.8% in Virginia. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 3.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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