Jerome model in Kentucky: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 47.8% for Clinton and 52.2% for Trump in Kentucky.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they may contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 58.4% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Kentucky. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 6.2 percentage points higher.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 7.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 59.9% in Kentucky. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 5.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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