Jerome model: Trump with comfortable lead in Montana

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 45.3% for Clinton and 54.7% for Trump in Montana.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Montana sees Trump at 57.3% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.6 percentage points higher.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Montana, which is 2.4 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 7.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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