Jerome model in Kansas: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.2% for Trump in Kansas.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 60.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Kansas. This value is 3.9 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 1.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.8% in Kansas. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 9.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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