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Illinois: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will collect 54.4% of the two-party vote share in Illinois, whereas Trump will win 45.6%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 54.0% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Illinois. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points worse.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 57.3% of the two-party vote in Illinois, which is 2.9 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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