The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump in Colorado.
Historically, Colorado has been a purple state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions here are of particular interest.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models may include large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently runs at 52.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Colorado. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Colorado, which is 0.5 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.6 percentage points higher.