Jerome model in Vermont: Clinton with comfortable lead

The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 54.2% for Clinton and 45.8% for Trump in Vermont.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they may incorporate substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Vermont econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 60.4%. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 6.2 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 6.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.7% in Vermont. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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