Utah: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to this model, Clinton will collect 35.4% of the two-party vote share in Utah, whereas Trump will end up with 64.6%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Utah econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 71.4%. This value is 6.8 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 1.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 62.9% in Utah. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 17.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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