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Jerome model: Clinton in South Carolina trails by a moderate margin


The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 46.6% of the two-party vote share in South Carolina, while Trump will win 53.4%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be treated with caution, since they can contain substantial errors. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of South Carolina econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 55.7%. Compared to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.3 percentage points better.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The results are consistent with the prediction from PollyVote for South Carolina. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 6.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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