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Jerome model in Pennsylvania: Clinton is in the lead


The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump in Pennsylvania.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can incorporate large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, one should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 51.9% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Pennsylvania. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points lower.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania, which is 0.1 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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