Jerome model in North Dakota: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will achieve 44.3% of the two-party vote share in North Dakota, whereas Trump will win 55.7%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, don't focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in North Dakota has Trump at 59.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.7 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 4.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 59.7% in North Dakota. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 8.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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