Jerome model: Trump with small lead in North Carolina

The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 47.2% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump in North Carolina.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 53.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in North Carolina. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points higher.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.6% in North Carolina. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 5.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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