New York: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead
The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 58.9% for Clinton and 41.1% for Trump in New York.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they may include substantial errors. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in New York has Clinton at 60.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.8 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 59.6% in New York. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 5.8 percentage points higher.